You are a prisoner sentenced to death. The Emperor offers you a chance to live by playing a simple game. He gives you 50 black marbles, 50 white marbles, and 2 empty bowls. He then says, "Divide these 100 marbles into these 2 bowls. You can divide them any way you like as long as you use all the marbles. Then I will blindfold you and mix the bowls around. You then can choose one bowl and remove ONE marble. If the marble is WHITE you will live, but if the marble is BLACK... you will die."
How do you divide the marbles up so that you have the greatest probability of choosing a WHITE marble?
The Answer:
Place 1 white marble in one bowl, and place the rest of the marbles in the other bowl (40 white, and 50 blacks). This way you begin with a 50/50 chance of choosing the bowl with just one white marble, therefore life! BUT even if you choose the other bowl, you still have ALMOST a 50/50 chance at picking one of the 49 white marbles.
So how did you do? What would you have done? Can you image being in a position to make a choice like this? I stumbled upon this yesterday in the mail from Duke University TIP Program and knew immediately that I wanted to share this with you. It wasn't until I was typing the answer that I realized why this particular brain teaser resonated with me so much. See I was once faced with a 50/50 proposition and I knew the answer to my "teaser" would also change my life significantly. The possibility of an untimely death was also involved.
In December, 1999 I discovered that the breast cancer gene BRCA1 was in my family and that it was probable that my mother, who was diagnosed with breast cancer when she was 31, had this gene. It was explained to me by a certified genetic counselor that this meant I had a 50/50 chance of having it. If I fell on the good side of 50/50 I would have a normal population of breast cancer risk. But if I fell on the wrong side, I would be at high risk for not only breast cancer but ovarian cancer as well. It was my choice whether or not I wanted to undergo genetic testing to find out which side I fell on. What would you do?
